Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

Some machine-gun shoots in Texas let children attend... [More]
...which "Authorized Journalist" Anna M. Tinsley weaves into a convoluted tapestry of misdirection and non sequiturs to derive this foregone conclusion:
Remove guns from your home.
If we were to stay on topic and relevant, of course, we'd need to take all the shoots in the country that allow supervised children to participate and then factor in the number of child fatalities. Who wants to bet against common youth team sports being significantly more dangerous?

Someone competent with statistics help me out here and refine a credible data set criteria. The way Anna has things skewed, her conclusions depend more on gangbangers-per-morgue than anything else.

[Via Fired Brass from She Draws Him Like a Gun]

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi, I have been a long time reader, but never really post anything. I forward your blog to everyone I know. Keep it up!

To address this women, I have issues with the quote, "More youths between the ages of 10 and 19 die from gunshot wounds than any other cause except motor vehicle accidents, according to a 2008 Children’s Defense Fund report."

Who are the 2008 Children's Defense Fund? I seem to remember reading a CDC report (the authoritative one as far as I know) and that didn't indicate firearms were the leading cause of death in children.

It frustrates me when new agencies just pull these stats off someone and don't bother considering how valid the info is. That's like trying to quote the Brady camp on gun related violence stats. You will never get the actual numbers.

-Jon
Nashua, NH

Anonymous said...

Any article that provides statistical analysis should provide complete data (or provide a downlable source) so that the reader could derive their own conclusions. In this matter, the statistical population data should give the cause of death of all people aged 8-19, with data for each year of age. If you are 14 years old and you are stabbed or shot, steal a vehicle and hit a tree at high speed, or decide to hang yourself, the result is the same. What differs is the action that causes the death. It is inappropriate and ineffective in preventing other deaths to demonize the tools used. Changing the behavior of the actors is essential. Providing more comprehensive data will enable the readers to draw better conclusions.

Farm.Dad said...

Move along citizen Nothing unusual to see here . Its just the normal War of the betas . Beta males , and Beta females will emotionanaly identify with the article because it makes them " feel " facts be dammed . In fact my two children did shoot full auto at about 8 or 10 years old . It was an uncommon one a Styer mp69 that i had occation to have via assignment . I wont have a gun in the house that is a " mystrey gun " for any of the household . Now understand it was a 1 on one thing with the child closer supervised than i understand happened here on the post/article. However the premise i subscribe to is that a frirearm , any firearm , is a tool . and many power tools are best safed from children by " safeing " the child , not the tool . My kids lived thro an assortment up to title two firearms in the house , they did not live thro this by denying access , rather by making the gun another power tool , and treating it as such . Note tho that my youngest child is now 22 and she may be warped for all dateing by me . To tie things back inn tho She has a ccw , and she wont blow anything , much less a whistle to defend herself .

Anonymous said...

The legal definition of "children" in the country is anyone under the age of 18.

In reality as opposed to these "statistics", if not outright lies, most of these "children" are gang members or petty criminals of some sort, killed either by gang violence, drug-related retaliation, or fistfights gone terribly wrong.

Innocent children?, really?, so much homicides?

Anyone with the remotest sense of logic will be able to smell the rat here.

Also, I like how Star-Telegram posts a whole set of anti-gun drivel at the end of their article. In Chinese, we would call these fools "Bu Yao Lian",which means Liars With No Face, or Faceless Liars.

Anonymous said...

While I don't think full auto pistol suicide is an epidemic, I just can't defend what happened up in Massachusetts. Wouldn't a better idea have been to put a couple rounds in the pistol, and let the kid get acclimated first?

That said...

I don't think there's any math to scrutinize. Note the following:

* Clumping together 10 to 19 year-olds is unusual, but that may reflect the author's data. CDC generally publishes age groups infant / 1-4 / 5-14 / 15-24.

* Terminology is important. Phrases such as "gun violence" and "gun death" are undefined, or defined by the user. The author breaks down the numbers at the end of the article--which is helpful. Note that, unsurprisingly, homicide and suicide are the top two causes of death. The accidental death numbers appear to be within expected range. Keep in mind this is out of a population of 290 million, and an estimated 60 million homes containing firearms.

* Listing raw totals instead of rates per 100,000 is only telling half of the story, so the 'CHILD GUN DEATHS IN TEXAS' section isn't useful information.

* Children’s Defense Fund is a lobby group that advocates more state-run health maintenance and eduction. I don't recognize them as experts on firearms, defense, crime or mortality data.

Anonymous said...

I see that my point number 2 is defective. Let me clarify: "gun death" is not a single cause of death. Homicide and accidents are disparate causes that shouldn't be lumped together, because they occur for entirely different reasons, and aren't necessarily tied to each other. That's like lumping together transport accidents, fire accidents and death resulting from criminal use of fire, and calling it "hydrocarbon death".

Look, homicide is the big one. Among accidental causes of death, firearms have stiff competition from gravity, fire, water and poisoning. Drowning is the most common cause. None of these causes--save one--exhibits the same jump in deaths as homicide, where the number of deaths in the 15-24 age group is twenty-four times larger than the 5-14 age group. Gang activity is a likely explanation. The other is poisoning. Drug use--'nough said.


Also: CDC requests that "citation as to source is appreciated, when quotations are used in publications." My sources:

(CDC / National Center for Health Statistics)

NVSR Volume 56, Number 10
(PHS) 2008-1120
"Deaths: Final Data for 2005"
pp. 34 (logical page number)