Wednesday, April 25, 2018

No Cigar -- Yet

“Republicans shouldn't be hitting the alarm, they should be slamming it," said Mike Noble, a GOP pollster based in Arizona. He added: "This district isn't supposed to be competitive, and so to see this margin, especially with the Republicans pouring in resources here — again, it's a tough year." [More]
In the case of this race, gun owners should have come out in force. I wonder how many did not.

Go ahead, tell me one vote doesn't matter.

I just have too many other priorities to analyze what happened here to make the race so close. I suspect a lot of outside money went into getting out the Democrat vote and also won't be surprised if I see "reporting" strongly favored Tiperneni over Lesko.

Like this.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

I'll help make your analysis easier with just one word, since I live here: illegals.
-MM

Bluesgal said...

Some thoughts on the CD 8 election (as it is my district). The democratic candidate should have been crushed.. this best be a wake up call for fun owners for the november election.

The DNC used it as litmus test for the "real" election as the seat is up again in November for the full term. This election was for the remaining 7 months of Franks' term.

Only 38% of registered voters actually voted - tells me Republicans did not care to vote and Democrats got people energized, just not enough

Most of the voting was done by early mail in ballots. - All that last minute advertising was probably useless as most people had already voted.

Tirpirnani - who called for gun registration on her website was signing people up at her election party last night to get on the ballot for November

Tipirnani has not yet conceded the election.

Results Chart
US REP DIST CD 8 CANDIDATES
US Rep Dst CD 8 Registered Voters: 455660 Ballots Cast: 174513 * Turnout: 38.30% Vote For 1
REP - LESKO, DEBBIE* 91390 / 52%
DEM - TIPIRNENI, HIRAL 82318 / 47%
Write-In Candidate 615 / 0%

Mack said...

David,

"... I suspect a lot of outside money went into getting out the Democrat vote and also won't be surprised if I see "reporting" strongly favored Tiperneni over Lesko."

See, I think you're on to something important; worthy of a AL commentary.

We hear all this talk about "foreign influence" regarding presidential elections.

Well, isn't "outside money" a kind of "foreign influence" -- if you think about it?

I would consider supporting a federal law requiring all campaign donations for any U.S candidate be confined to the state only. This means no national groups, national PACS, and so on?

What do you think?

David Codrea said...

Good God, no.

First of all, the laws they enact apply to us all. We are all "stakeholders."

Second, if I live in a state where all is lost, I can still appeal to and support someone else who can help me achieve my political goals at the national level. It's the flaw I've criticized groups asking to email legislators over before-- what good does it do to send an email or fax blast to Schumer or Feinstein? I can instead contact and incentivize a different pol and say even though I can't vote for you, I can support your campaign.

Third, and arguably first, I refuse to tolerate anyone telling me who I can support for whatever reason.

Anonymous said...

The Democrat wouldn't even put their party affiliation on their campaign ads.

The Republican did.

What does that say? The word "Democrat" is still a turnoff.

There's a bunch of the (D)'s campaign ads on my commute and NONE of them say what her party is. Shouldn't all the hashtag campaigns and pinko-hat brigades have emboldened the (D)-heads to be proud to say who they are now?

Henry said...

Absolute best of all possible outcomes.

1) National Republicans turn on and screw gun owners and other constitutionalists.
2) Republicans barely retain a district they thought they ruled absolutely.
3) Republicans are shaken up.
4) Avowed gun-grabbing challenger is safely put away.

Give me a dozen more of those, all around the country. It’s like neon.

Mack said...

First of all, the laws they enact apply to us all. We are all "stakeholders."

Well, you make 3 very good points. It wasn't about you or me; rather I was concerned by George Soros and Tom Steyer.