Friday, December 15, 2006

About that Australian "Gun Death" Study...

I can't help but note the graph shows a steep declining trend for better than 15 years before the '96 "buyback." I'm no statistician, but several questions come immediately to mind:
  • If removing a fixed number of guns from the population resulted in a directly attributable decrease in deaths, can we also demonstrate a commensurate level in continued deaths for the guns remaining in the population?
  • Which part of the population participated in surrendering weapons (i.e., "law-abiding"?) Are the death reductions exclusive to that segment?
  • Has there been a commensurate decrease in criminal activity?
  • Has immigration policy introduced a new and statistically significant population growth demographic for which gun ownership is nontraditional?
This is just off the top of my head--there are plenty of other questions that pop up, such as how they factor in higher suicide rates in totally disarmed cultures like Japan, why a temporary absence of a statistical rarity, mass shootings, is perceived as a cure against all future mass shootings, what the criteria is to define a mass shooting (more than 1? 2?...), and, to get theoretical (but it's justified based on longer-term historic "trends") what would the effects of a disarmed population be should the country either devolve into a Stalinist-style tyranny or be invaded?

I'd like to see someone who really knows his way around crunching the numbers and asking the right questions, like John Lott take a crack at this.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

The Failed Experiment (PDF file)

You might like this David. It's from 2003. While firearm homicides were decreasing, violent crime was not. If the buyback had any effect, all it did was displace violent crime.

Better to be stabbed to death than shot to death, right? ;)

Anonymous said...

A damning critique of that Chapman and Alpers "study" has just been released:

http://www.ic-wish.org/Baker%20and%20McPhedran%20Review%20and%20Critique%20of%20Chapman%20et%20al.pdf