Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Exploitable Weaknesses

We know I-594 backers had comparatively overwhelming financial resources. That said, there were some fundamental negatives from "our" side:

Running a competing measure rather than just educating and urging "No" confused a significant number of voters, who ended up voting for both measures. Fudds were not only of no help, they were, in many cases, oblivious. NRA did not invest itself in this.  The paid media campaign as well as the ground game were lacking.

Dean Weingarten has come up with the best postmortem on this campaign I have seen. Of special significance: 90% is a lie. Even with all the kings horses and all the king's men pulling and lying like mad, it was more like 60 (analysis via John Lott).

There are ways to beat this when it comes to other states.  That's not just opinion. I say this as someone who, professionally, helped coordinate the successful defeat of numerous municipal ballot measures to ban fireworks in California, and never lost one. Helping to win three at the same time got me my last full-time corporate job.

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