Thursday, January 27, 2011

The Wrong Questions

Arizona reported more than 3,000 murders with guns over a nine-year span (1999-2007), according to CDC data. That amounts to six gun murders per 100,000 residents. The national rate was about four. [Read]
Got any demographics for those residents? How many NRA members...? How many "prohibited persons"?
One of the best indicators of gun ownership is the level of gun-involved suicide rates, he said. The CDC numbers show Arizona ranked ninth in suicides with guns.
Is it truly gun "ownership," which is a legal term, and not applicable to criminal class gun possessors suffering from addictions and a host of other poor life choices?

Y'know, there are lies, damned lies and statistics.  I don't have time on what I'd hoped would be a simple blog post to go parse this article and find the data they left out in their presentation, but do note AZ seems to fare somewhat better than high gun control states like New Jersey, New York and California here--not that it establishes causality either.

For instance, guns would hardly seem to be a factor in gun-free Japan, and we still don't know what to do about the dreaded self-terminating "Only Ones" epidemic...
"If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about the answers."
Thomas Pynchon (Gravity's Rainbow)

[Via Whitetreeaz]

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Link to original article?

Defender said...

They're moving beyond the feeling that they need to justify their proposals with evidence anyway. The bloody shirt off a victim of a madman's isolated act works just fine. "Remember the Maine!" William Randolph Hearst needed a war to boost newspaper circulation. When the battleship Maine blew up, possibly from a fire in its fuel hold, he made the theory of a Spanish attack his front page, and the Spanish-American War was on.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Maine_(ACR-1)

David Codrea said...

Fixed, thanks

zach said...

You have to check if "gun murders" includes self defense by citizens and cops. In the minds of "authorized journalists" the only purpose of firearms is for sport. Vermont has no laws either and is the safest in the Union. Mexico has a gun ban and is the murder capital of the west. So what? Violence lives inside people, not in inanimate objects.

Do you know what the sickest thing is about the debate right now? The fact that it's such a big deal is because a member of the government ruling caste was shot. Period. The same government that kills little kids everyday overseas for no reason but to control the opium trade. What a sick joke. That congresswoman is no more important than me or anyone else.

Stranger said...

The results of one single gun law, or a handful, does not establish establish causation. The results of ALL gun laws does establish less restrictive laws result in less violent crime.

That comment made; for the 9 years 1999 to 2007, Arizona reported 3,641 homicides to the FBI; for a median homicide rate of 7.01.

Of those 3641 homicides, 2,836 or 79.9% appear to have been a result of "thieves falling out:" the victim was either a partner or rival in crime with their killer.

This is substantially higher than the generally accepted national average for criminal on criminal homicides. That is very likely a result of Arizona's position as a favored conduit for drugs and other contraband.

When the number of criminal on criminal homicides is subtracted, Arizona's median number of homicides is 89 per year with a median population of 5.8 million.
For an outstanding low 1.5 homicides per 100,000 population.

Compare that with the a similarly derived national number of 2.7 per 100,000 persons, and Arizona looks very good.

Stranger

Mack said...

Zimring is well-known as a gun control biased researcher.

See, for example:
http://www.policytoday.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=76&Itemid=148